Quebec Private Commercial Lending Market Report - 2024 Q4
1. Introduction
Purpose
This report analyzes private commercial lending activities in Quebec’s real estate market. It provides key metrics on lending patterns, market concentration, and trends that are relevant for lenders, investors, and market participants.
About Terram
Terram is a data intelligence platform that aggregates and structures land registry, corporate, and property data to support real estate professionals, investors, and credit managers. It provides structured and standardized intelligence, enabling users to analyze market activity, corporate networks, and property transactions. Terram’s platform is designed for due diligence, market analysis, and risk assessment, offering a comprehensive view of commercial real estate markets.
Coverage & Data Sources
- Region: Quebec Province
- Time Period: 2023 to 2024 Q4
- Focus: Commercial real estate loans from private lenders
- Analysis Window: Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) ending December 31, 2024.
- Data: Quebec Land Registry records, processed and standardized
2. Market Overview
This section presents the key market indicators for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ending 2024 Q4.
Key Metrics (TTM)
- Total Lending Volume: 719 M$ (4.47% vs previous TTM)
- Number of Loans: 642 (2.88% vs previous TTM)
- Typical Loan Size (Median): 522 500$ (5.56% vs previous TTM)
3. Market Activity & Loan Sizes
All metrics in this section are calculated using trailing twelve-month (TTM) periods to account for market seasonality and volatility.
Quarterly Market Trends
The following table tracks lending activity across quarters, showing changes in loan count, total volume, and typical loan sizes.
| Quarter | TTM Loan Count | Δ Loan Count (%) | TTM Loan Volume (M$) | Δ Loan Volume (%) | TTM Median Loan Size ($) | Δ Median Loan Size (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-4 | 642 | 2.88 | 719 | 4.47 | 522500 | 5.56 |
| 2024-3 | 624 | 4.7 | 688 | 2.77 | 495000 | 10.0 |
| 2024-2 | 596 | 7.19 | 670 | 20.12 | 450000 | 4.05 |
| 2024-1 | 556 | -1.24 | 558 | -9.93 | 432500 | -3.89 |
| 2023-4 | 563 | 0.0 | 619 | -1.91 | 450000 | -1.32 |
| 2023-3 | 563 | -3.1 | 631 | -23.46 | 456000 | 0.0 |
| 2023-2 | 581 | -5.68 | 824 | -13.62 | 456000 | -8.8 |
| 2023-1 | 616 | -1.91 | 955 | 0.87 | 500000 | 0.0 |
Loan Size Categories
This table shows how loans are distributed across size categories:
- Small Loans: Under $250,000
- Medium Loans: $250,000 to $2 million
- Large Loans: Over $2 million
| Quarter | TTM Loan Count | % Small (Count) | % Medium (Count) | % Large (Count) | TTM Loan Volume (M$) | % Small (Volume) | % Medium (Volume) | % Large (Volume) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-4 | 642 | 46.42 | 36.29 | 17.29 | 719 | 9.76 | 30.86 | 59.37 |
| 2024-3 | 624 | 50.0 | 33.49 | 16.51 | 688 | 10.37 | 28.02 | 61.61 |
| 2024-2 | 596 | 51.51 | 32.05 | 16.44 | 669 | 10.49 | 25.76 | 63.75 |
| 2024-1 | 556 | 53.24 | 33.63 | 13.13 | 557 | 12.06 | 31.65 | 56.29 |
| 2023-4 | 563 | 51.69 | 34.64 | 13.68 | 619 | 10.78 | 29.45 | 59.77 |
| 2023-3 | 563 | 51.15 | 33.93 | 14.92 | 631 | 10.65 | 29.12 | 60.23 |
| 2023-2 | 581 | 50.95 | 33.73 | 15.32 | 824 | 8.93 | 22.51 | 68.55 |
| 2023-1 | 616 | 49.84 | 33.77 | 16.4 | 954 | 8.31 | 20.37 | 71.32 |
4. Market Concentration Analysis
The following analysis uses trailing twelve-month (TTM) data to provide a stable view of market concentration and lender behavior.
This section examines how lending activity is distributed among market participants, focusing on the five largest lenders.
Concentration by Loan Volume
The table below shows what percentage of total lending volume comes from the top 5 lenders, and how their typical loan sizes compare to other lenders.
| Quarter | Total Volume (M$) | Top 5 Volume (M$) | MCR by Volume (%) | Loan Size Disparity Ratio | Top 5 Median Loan Size ($) | Remaining Market Median Loan Size ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-4 | 719 | 314 | 43.67 | 2.49 | 1070000.0 | 430500.0 |
| 2024-3 | 688 | 300 | 43.62 | 2.5 | 1000000.0 | 400000.0 |
| 2024-2 | 670 | 301 | 44.99 | 2.19 | 877500.0 | 400000.0 |
| 2024-1 | 558 | 237 | 42.49 | 3.5 | 1225000.0 | 350000.0 |
| 2023-4 | 619 | 302 | 48.77 | 4.08 | 1530000.0 | 375000.0 |
| 2023-3 | 631 | 298 | 47.15 | 1.73 | 700000.0 | 404000.0 |
| 2023-2 | 824 | 400 | 48.57 | 1.56 | 700000.0 | 450000.0 |
| 2023-1 | 955 | 476 | 49.82 | 10.84 | 4880000.0 | 450000.0 |
Concentration by Number of Loans
This table shows how many loans the top 5 lenders issue compared to the rest of the market.
| Quarter | Total Count | Top 5 Count | MCR by Count (%) | Loan Count Disparity Ratio | Top 5 Median Loan Size ($) | Remaining Market Median Loan Size ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-4 | 642 | 216 | 33.64 | 1.2 | 600000.0 | 500000.0 |
| 2024-3 | 624 | 203 | 32.53 | 1.08 | 500000.0 | 464000.0 |
| 2024-2 | 596 | 197 | 33.05 | 0.83 | 416000.0 | 500000.0 |
| 2024-1 | 556 | 195 | 35.07 | 0.7 | 350000.0 | 500000.0 |
| 2023-4 | 563 | 195 | 34.64 | 0.8 | 400000.0 | 500000.0 |
| 2023-3 | 563 | 179 | 31.79 | 0.7 | 350000.0 | 500000.0 |
| 2023-2 | 581 | 202 | 34.77 | 0.59 | 355000.0 | 600000.0 |
| 2023-1 | 616 | 209 | 33.93 | 0.57 | 352000.0 | 620000.0 |
5. Understanding the Data
Methodology & Lender Classification
Private Lender Criteria & Classification
A private lender in this report must meet all of the following criteria:
- Consistent lending activity – Issues at least 3 mortgage loans (“hypothecs”) per quarter to demonstrate sustained market presence.
- Proven market participation – Maintains this level of activity for at least 2 consecutive quarters to ensure ongoing operations.
- Diversified borrower base – Achieves a minimum debtor diversification ratio of 0.4 (unique debtors / total loans) to exclude special-purpose vehicles and related-party lending structures.
- Independent transaction analysis – While lenders who participate in syndicated loans are included in our dataset, syndicated loans themselves are excluded from this version of the report to maintain focus on single-lender transactions.
Why We Use Trailing Twelve Months (TTM)
We analyze lending activity using a trailing twelve-month (TTM) approach to ensure data consistency and meaningful trend analysis. This methodology helps to:
- Reduce distortions caused by short-term market volatility in private lending.
- Adjust for seasonal fluctuations in real estate financing.
- Provide more stable trend identification over time.
- Enable smoother quarter-to-quarter comparisons by averaging out irregularities.
Key Terms Explained
- Trailing Twelve Months (TTM): A rolling 12-month period ending with the most recent quarter, used to smooth short-term fluctuations.
- Market Concentration Ratio (MCR): The percentage of total lending volume controlled by the top 5 lenders in the market.
- Loan Size Disparity Ratio: A measure comparing the median loan size of the top 5 lenders to the remaining market to identify lending concentration.
- Hypothec: A mortgage loan under Quebec law, secured by real estate.
Data Limitations
This analysis does not account for:
- Delayed reporting of transactions in the land registry, which may cause minor discrepancies.
- Interest rates and specific loan terms, which are not disclosed in public records.
- Occasional lenders and special-purpose lending vehicles, which are excluded based on activity thresholds.
6. Contact & Further Insights
For loan-level analysis or direct access to real estate transactions, property records, and market activity in our platform, explore our solutions at terram.io.
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Last Updated: February 7, 2025